Totem Markets is building the premier prediction market on Hyperliquid. Prediction markets are powerful truth‑seeking tools, and their credibility is directly tied to liquidity. For any "prediction" to be taken seriously, its market must be hyper-liquid. Thus, their natural home should be the high‑performance order book that Hyperliquid provides.

Existing prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have shown demand for speculation but often suffer from illiquidity stemming from fundamentally flawed trading infrastructure, APIs, and regulatory constraints. Totem will leverage Hyperliquid's permissionless and decentralized trading infrastructure, coupled with novel liquidity designs, to build the best venue to trade prediction markets globally.

Totem Markets has four core principles:

1. Event trading is a new asset class and will grow 100x across the world.
2. Hyperliquid must win new market types to become the home of all finance.
3. Liquidity is the primary UX driver for a financial product, and thus, prediction markets must live on a platform built to satisfy the needs of professional and recreational traders alike.
4. Decentralization beats centralized alternatives.

Market Design and Discovery

On totem, each market represents the probability of an event occuring. Thus, prices live in (p 26,97: On totem, each market represents the probability of an event occuring. Thus, prices live in p ∈ [0,1] where p is the probability of the event occuring. There is no continuous oracle or funding during trading, and a single terminal resolution r ∈ {0,1} settles positions. Positions are isolated and collateralized to the maximum possible loss at resolution. [0,1] where p is the probability of the event occuring. There is no continuous oracle or funding during trading, and a single terminal resolution r ∈ {0,1} settles positions. Positions are isolated and collateralized to the maximum possible loss at resolution.

HIP-4 was publicly proposed in Sep 2025 and is designed to extend existing HIP-3 infrastructure. This should allow the Hyperliquid team to use a meaningful amount of work from HIP-3 to implement HIP-4. Having HIP-3 also allows teams like Totem to have an API reference which we can easily extend to build out a much more detailed HIP-4 spec than the original HIP-4 blogpost. It allows us to work with the rest of the community to give the Hyperliquid team a much clearer specifciation for HIP-4, hopefully minimizing engineering effort for the Hyperliquid Labs team. Since HIP-4 started as a community effort, Totem will share our spec and work with the community to build out the first truly community-led effort on Hyperliquid.

In terms of market design, we believe there are a few key features to note that Totem aims to develop in our even markets:

• An onchain CLOB on HyperCore hosts each event market. This means traders and market makers who already trade on the Hyperliquid DEX can easily provide liquidity to these markets without having to write new integrations. It also allows exchange improvements to the Hypercore to directly benefit event markets. None of the current prediction markets are built on top of higher performance trading infrastructure and thus, cannot scale to 100s of billions of dollars in volume. This is a fundamnetal flaw for current prediction market infrastructure since the more volume these markets have, the more incentive informed traders and firms have to "seek the truth" and trade these markets. We want it to be trivial for traders to particiapte in totem markets since liquidity doesn't just beget liquidty for us, it begets the truth.
• Trading fees: Ideally, we'd like the fees for the event markets to taper off close to resolution so that traders are able to push prices to 0 or 1. Our expected fee shape would be something like: This suggested fee curve can also be merged with Hyperliquid's tiered rates, staking/referral discounts, maker rebates, and deployer fee share to fully integrate into the ecosystem.
• Collateralization All margin for totem markets is isolated. Users are able to long 1 lot of YES by collateralizing p*q where q is the standard size of a lot. Similarly to long 1 lot of NO (or short 1 lot of YES), the user must collateralize q*(1-p) where q is the standard size of a lot.
• Purpose built interface: A key aspect of prediction market is market discovery. The flipside of allowing users to trade everything is that market discovery becomes complicated. This is a departure from the traditional trading of stocks or crypto where the absolute number of markets is far smaller than prediciton markets. We believe there is a large design space for new interfaces to be built to help traders discover and trade these markets. By leveraging Hyperliquid's high performance trading infrastructure, teams like Totem can focus on building the best interface for prediction markets. Moreover, builder codes can be re-utilized in completely new contexts like incentivizing content creators who bring in volume to specific markets via streams or videos. This design space should also provide ecosystem teams with new latitudes to differentiate themselves instead of having to go after the established markets of crypto twitter traders.
• Automated liquidity: HLP‑style vault to complement external market makers and provide baseline two‑sided liquidity. Specific parameters and roll‑out will be finalized with community feedback but we expect HLP-style vaults to be a key differentiator for prediction markets on Hyperliquid. We expect there to be different vaults for different "clusters" of markets (think of each cluster as a different market domain like the NFL or American politics). Users will be able to deploy capital to clusters they expect volumes will grow in.
• Exotics: As Totem develops, we expect to add leverage and parlays. However, our current focus is to build out a solid spec for HIP-4 as isoolated 1x markets with community feedback and then move onto providing leverage for these markets.

Market Launch

Our goal is to help build the foundational infra for HIP-4 markets, whether it be helping create the HIP-4 spec, creating middleware APIs specifically designed for prediction markets or reference implementations for frontends that other teams can use to make domain specific applications for prediction markets. Totem's initial focus is:

• Community‑first launch: Totem will start with a tight feedback loop with community power users, iterate in public, and align incentives to grow usage. This is the Hyperliquid ethos, this is how HIP-4 was born, and we expect to carry that torch forward.
• Niche‑market‑led growth: We will focus on markets where we have unique expertise and distribution (not generic headlines), bringing new user cohorts to Hyperliquid and crypto. Almost all prediction markets have been very US-centric; we expect the global expansion to be led by teams deploying HIP-4 exchanges.

Intent

Our intention behind this doc is to underscore our seriousness about building the most significant prediction market in the world on top of Hyperliquid, to call for community feedback, and to urge the Hyperliquid team to implement HIP-4 and work with the community to do so.

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